7.4.07

Do Blairites and Brownites exist in the Parliamentary party?

I was struck by some analysis of Mrs Thatcher's downfall and what really caught my eye was how few Thatcherites were in the parliamentary party by the end of her tenure at Downing Street what you would term the true believers. This is what fundamentally led to her poor performance v Heseltine in the opening ballot of the leadership race. From analysis by Norton it's pretty clear much of the Tory parliamentary party was made up of pragmatists.

I think is the case with the Labour parliamentary party the media tend to exaggerate the extent of the Brownite/Blairite divide. Of course there are MPs that exist who would class themsleves with these labels they are relatively few in number. The majority of the parliamentary party is neither Brownite nor Blairite. The myth of the two camps has suited both sides. It has allowed those around Gordon Brown to pretend that they controlled huge swathes of troops which they ordered to attack or retreat at will. It was therefore Gordon who decided whether the Government won or lost key votes and who thus decided the fate of the Prime Minister. The myth has similarly suited the Blairites, because it has allowed them to deflect attention away from the real reason that they have got into difficulties with their backbenchers, enabling them to place the blame on the Brownites and their devious scheming. The truth has always been more prosaic. When Tony Blair got himself into difficulties with the PLP, it was not because of Gordon and his Brownites. It was because he managed to alienate the broad non-aligned mainstream on his backbenches. When Gordon Brown runs into trouble with the PLP, it will be for exactly the same reason.

Of course there could be a different outcome if the Parliamentary party if pragmatic as many people suggest could it be that they look for a different leader other than Brown? Martin Kettle of the Guardian suggested that upto 60/90 MPs backed Gordon Brown, then there was the hard left in terms of the Campign Group. 60 MPs opposed Brown outright (i.e former Ministers etc), then there was about 200 MPs in the centre willing to look at the best candidate who would win the next election. So if someone like Miliband shows he is more popular than Brown in the polls could Labour elect him? Miliband is a canny operator all those lunches with newspapers editors last month may work out for him in the future. The crucial factor will the often forgotten factor in the whole equation the Labour party membership/union membership, in my view they are neither Blairite/Brownite but pragmatic who ever will deliever a fourth term will get there vote. If Miliband stands and has the backing of Fleet Street as well as the opinion polls could we have a Shakespearian tradegy to inflict Brown?

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